How Kalshi 15-minute crypto markets settle

Kalshi lists short crypto rounds that ask a simple question: will the price be up or down 15 minutes from now? This TickTilt guide explains, in plain words, how the answer is decided. The short version: it is not the last trade on a chart app. It is an average of an index over one minute.

The two numbers that matter

Each round has a target (Kalshi shows it as the strike) and a final value. Both are averages of a CF Benchmarks real-time index, such as the CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) for Bitcoin.

Target: the simple average of the index over the 60 seconds before the round opened.
Final value: the simple average of the index over the 60 seconds before the round closes.

Kalshi's market notes describe collecting 60 index prices in the last minute and averaging them, rounded to two decimal places.

Who wins

The rule text for the Bitcoin series reads, in essence: if the 60-second average before the close is at least the 60-second average before the open, the market resolves Yes (Up). "At least" means a tie goes to Up. If the final average is lower, Down (No) wins.

Example. Target is $75,000.00. Over the final minute the index averages $75,000.40. That is at least the target, so Up wins, even if the very last second printed $74,990.

Why an average instead of the last price?

Kalshi's help center says it uses CF Benchmarks indexes because they combine data from several exchanges instead of one, and that a one-minute average is generally less affected by a brief spike or dip than a single moment. A practical result: a jump in the final few seconds only moves the average by a fraction of its size, because it is one of 60 values.

Why your chart may disagree

The price on Coinbase, Google or another app is not the settlement price. The index is built from several exchanges' order books, so it can differ slightly from any one venue. In a very close round, one source can show "up" while the official average lands "down". TickTilt uses Coinbase's public price as a live stand-in, so treat close calls on TickTilt with extra caution.

Things worth knowing

Each 15-minute window is its own market with its own target. Check which open and close times your market refers to.
The contract terms say revisions to the index after expiration are not counted.
Each market's own rules and contract terms on Kalshi govern settlement. If this guide ever differs from them, the official rules win.

Sources

Kalshi Help Center: Crypto Markets · Kalshi CRYPTO15M contract terms (PDF)