TickTiltKalshi crypto 15-minute markets FAQ
Common questions about Kalshi's 15-minute crypto Up/Down rounds and how TickTilt reads them. Short answers first; deeper guides linked below.
Information only, not betting or financial advice. No signal is ever 100% certain. TickTilt is independent and not affiliated with Kalshi.
What are Kalshi 15-minute crypto markets?
They are short Up/Down event contracts on Kalshi for coins such as Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and XRP. Each round asks whether a CF Benchmarks real-time index average at the end of a 15-minute window is at or above (Up) or below (Down) the average from just before the round opened.
How does settlement work?
Settlement uses a 60-second average of the CF Benchmarks index at the close, not the last tick on Coinbase or a chart app. Ties go Up. See TickTilt's settlement guide for detail.
What is TickTilt?
TickTilt is a free, independent live-read site. It shows lean cards for open 15-minute rounds and a Scorecard of how often those leans matched official results. It is not Kalshi, not a broker, and not advice.
What do Strong lean, Leaning, and Toss-up mean?
On TickTilt, Strong lean means the estimated chance of one side is about 95% or higher; Leaning is roughly 60–94%; Toss-up is under 60%. Colors and labels are automated estimates from price versus target.
Why do later Strong leans look more accurate on the Scorecard?
In TickTilt's early graded sample, Strong leans at ~2 minutes left were right 116 of 116 times (shown as 99%+), versus 97.7% at ~3 minutes and 96.2% at ~6 minutes. Less time remains for a flip. That is early data—counts will grow, and future samples can differ.
Is a 95% lean a guarantee?
No. No signal is ever 100% certain. Close rounds can disagree with Coinbase because settlement uses a multi-exchange index average. TickTilt labels perfect sample rates as 99%+ and always shows counts.
How do Kalshi fees affect break-even?
The common taker fee is about 0.07·p·(1−p) per contract, rounded up. Paying 95¢ plus a 1¢ fee means you need roughly a 96% win rate to break even. See the odds and fees guide for worked examples.
Does TickTilt place trades or hold money?
No. TickTilt only displays public market and price information. Any trading happens on Kalshi under their rules, eligibility, and risk disclosures.
Who can use these markets?
Event contracts are only for people who meet Kalshi's age and jurisdiction rules. TickTilt does not check eligibility. If you are not sure, do not trade.
Where can I see live leans and the track record?
Live cards: TickTilt home . Scorecard: the Scorecard . Guides: linked from the homepage.
Do ETH, SOL and XRP rounds work like Bitcoin?
Yes in structure: each has its own 15-minute Up/Down series, its own target from a CF Benchmarks real-time index for that asset, and the same style of final-minute average. Liquidity, typical move size, and how often TickTilt reaches a Strong lean can differ by coin. The Scorecard breaks Strong-lean results out by BTC, ETH, XRP and SOL so you can compare samples instead of assuming they match.
Why can TickTilt disagree with my chart right at the close?
TickTilt's live price stand-in is Coinbase's public spot. Kalshi settles on a CF Benchmarks index average across venues. In a nail-biter, those can disagree by a few dollars (or less on cheaper coins) and that is enough to flip Up vs Down. Treat "too close to call" cards as exactly that—especially in the last minute when the settlement window is already averaging.
How often does the Scorecard update?
The Scorecard aggregates graded checkpoints from a public replay of TickTilt's lean formula plus ongoing updates after rounds settle. The page caches for a couple of minutes. Tracking start date and sample size are printed on the page so you can see when history is still thin. Rates that would display as 100% are shown as 99%+ with the true count (for example 116 of 116).
Is TickTilt affiliated with Kalshi?
No. TickTilt is an independent site. Links to kalshi.com are plain links without referral payouts from those clicks. Ads may appear on TickTilt. Trademarks belong to their owners and are used only to describe the markets and data sources.